The Night of the Dark Horses

Well, the primary season is officially over and election season can finally start. With primaries in seven states, not counting Washington D.C., tea party candidates strived to buck the “establishment candidates” in Republican primaries for the House of Representatives, the U.S. Senate, and Governor.

Mostly notably in Delaware, New Hampshire, and New York; where the tea party backed candidates defeated candidates who were (at one time) seen as shoe-ins for both the primary and general elections. In Delaware, Christine O’Donnell (Sarah Palin and National Rifle Association endorsed candidate) defeated Representative Mike Castle (who was once elected Governor and the Congressman-at-large for the state). This has had all sorts of implications for the Republican Party and the Democrat Party, especially since (at the time of this posting) Mike Castle has yet to endorse O’Donnell.

In New Hampshire, Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, the Republican party-backed candidate and was endorsed by former Governor Sarah Palin, defeated Ovide Lamontagne (a tea party activists backed candidate who claimed to be the most conservative). Ayotte will face a Democrat for Senator Judd Gregg’s soon-to-be vacant seat. The Republican Party will have to gain ten seats on Election Day to capture control of the Senate. The G.O.P.’s chances in Delaware and New Hampshire are important to this cause.

In New York, the Democrats nominated Andrew Cuomo (he faced no opposition) for Governor. Even though he’s the favorite for his father’s former office, he’ll face tea-party favorite, and political novice, Carl Paladino. Paladino ran against former Representative Rick Lazio, who was seen to be the political favorite. In Wisconsin, the G.O.P. nominated Scott Walker, who is seen as the favorite and has been running a phenomenal campaign for Governor.

The main question that arises with the political novices, who have catapulted themselves into the political arena for November is, “Will they be electable?” Even though President Obama’s approval rating is below 50 percent and Congress’ approval rating is in the single digits, some political commentators believe that these races could be a toss-up come November 2^nd. It’s only been a day since the primary ended, but candidates (and the media) are already levying attacks and supports for who they think should fill these open seats. Senator John Cornyn (R-TX), who runs the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), has donated the maximum amount of $42,000 to Christine O’Donnell. Media outlets last night, after the O’Donnell victory, were reporting that the NRSC was going to pull money out of the race. It is still questionable if the NRSC will focus on any ad media buys, or if they just did the norm of awarding the winner of the Republican Primary. Cornyn has had some mixed reviews among Conservatives on his current job, but he (and the NRSC) always backs the winner.

The truth is that these candidates all will face an uphill battle if they are going to go from the “tea party candidates” to the “tea party elected officials,” but if Marco Rubio, in Florida, has shown anything it is that you can always go from being down in the polls to being ahead in the polls. I’m not sure if the ever flip-flopping Charlie Crist is a variable equation, but let’s just assume that he is not.

There is one thing for sure, on November 2^nd, Americans are going to go out and vote. Whether or not we have a Republican or Democrat majority, there will be a new day in politics as usual in Washington D.C. There are multiple scenarios that the electorate could send to Congress. The most talked about one is a Republican Congress and a Democrat President or a split Congress (a Republican House Majority and a minimum of 41 Republican Senators) and a Democrat President. Either way, Congress and the President will have to start addressing taxing and spending, the deficit, and the growth of big government on different terms.