GOTV: The Stuff Elections Are Made Of

Here we are, folks…just under three weeks from what promises to be one of our nation’s most historic elections. But some races may be historic for reasons other than the narrative being portrayed across the land. Be prepared for the possibility that predictions of a landslide are way off-base.

One of the most dangerous threats to a campaign is over-confidence, particularly poll-driven confidence. And this might explain why some media outlets–contrary to past performance–readily fan the flame of Republican revolution. If folks at home expect such a turn of events are a given, they’ll likely stay home and watch it unfold rather than participate.

Here’s a great “for instance.” Years ago, a good friend of mine–an incumbent, mind you–was riding high in the polls. He was the town favorite, had no baggage, and in fact was quite the local hero. And that was his problem. Voters “knew” he would be re-elected with no problem. And his campaign did nothing to quash those sentiments. Come election day, my friend lost by the most narrow of margins. As the days and weeks unfolded afterward, he talked to friend after friend, supporter after supporter who had not quite mustered the energy to turn out and vote. After all, why did they need to? My friend had virtually already won the election.

Therein lies the lesson: always–ALWAYS–assume you are the underdog in any race. So polls show you 20 points up and flush with cash? Don’t let anyone know it. The voters (heck, even the campaign staff) need to know one thing: “this race is going to be tight.” They need to have a reason to buy into the election with their vote. They must know that their voice does indeed matter.

So here’s the rule in the final week of an election. If the voters believe you’ll win big, you won’t. If they believe it’s going to go down to the wire, you’re more likely to win big. Get out the vote! Put your volunteers in a room, buy them pizza and soda, and get them smiling and dialing all election-day long. Call the 4×4 voters first…they always show up. If you have the troops to manage it, drive folks to the polls. Organize precinct calling trees; send reminder postcards. Do whatever it takes to get folks to exercise their civil right of suffrage.

Earn your victory, but never expect it.